By: Deanna McArthur
This is part two of a three-part series focused on presentations given at the IPCC Cities and Climate Change Science Conference held in Edmonton March 5-7, 2018. In Part One we touched on the sate of climate science today and in Part Three we look at how Alberta cities are preparing for climate change.
When we talk about climate change or even read about it in the media, there are common visual attributes that accompany the topic. These visuals are usually something along the lines of a polar bear standing on a small sheet of ice in the arctic water, or the devastation from hurricanes and other storms in distant countries.
Neither of these visuals immediately makes you think about Alberta, but the reality is that climate change is not something that will only affect the arctic, or far off places that we may or may not visit in our lifetime, it will affect all of us. Including Alberta.
So, what does a changing climate really mean to us as Albertans? What affect is this going to have on our everyday lives? On our economy?
Chandra Tomaras, Program Manager at the City of Edmonton, is leading the team dedicated to studying these exact topics. She has been working in Edmonton’s Environmental Strategic Planning Group, which looks after environmental sustainability, corporate environmental management, sustainability reporting, air quality management, and climate change resilience. Tomaras’ team has been challenged with the task of developing a community climate change adaptation and resilience strategy for Edmonton.
The Climate Adaptation Strategy for Edmonton will go to council in 2018 and outlines how Edmonton will prepare for the impacts of climate change. (We will cover more on what Edmonton and other cities in Alberta are doing to prepare for the future in Part 3 of this series.)
“I care about the work we do because climate change has widespread impacts,” said Tomaras during her presentation at the IPCC Cities and Climate Change Science Conference held in Edmonton. “The IPCC has said that climate change is projected to increase risks for people, assets, economies, and ecosystems. This includes risks from heat stress, storms, extreme precipitation, flooding, landslides, air pollution, drought, water scarcity, sea level rise, and storm surges.”
As we covered in part 1 of this series, the average surface temperature of the planet as a whole has risen by about 1-degree Celsius since the late 19th century. Most of that warming has happened in the last 35 years.
On a smaller scale, the Edmonton region has been warming significantly faster than the observed global rate. The climate history for the region looking back 100 years shows that the average annual temperature of the region has warmed about 1.7 degrees Celsius. In the below graph, which shows the climate history for the Edmonton region in the last 50 years, the Edmonton region has been warming at a much faster rate, almost twice that. According to Tomaras, climate models are showing that we are going to be warming at that faster rate until the end of the century.
You are probably saying to yourself, ok 1.7 degrees Celsius, that’s really not that much of an increase. Let’s look at it another way. The shifting bell curve graph is what really hit home for me. Tomaras explained that the graph shows the statistical variability of the annual average temperature in the Edmonton region.
Sounds kind of complicated right? Let’s break it down.
The center of the bell curve is the average temperature. This means that most times during the last century, Edmonton’s annual temperature was about 1.9 degrees Celsius.
When the temperature is on the right side of the graph, it was warmer than the average, and when it is on the left side of the graph the temperature was colder than average. The very far right side of the graph shows when Edmonton got the hottest years on record. As you can see, the occurrences of this was very small.
“This graph shows the standard operating conditions that we have been living in during the 20th century,” said Tomaras. “We are used to operating in these conditions. Many of the things we have built have been designed for these conditions. This is what we have prepared for.”
Now if you look at the bell curve in relation to the warming mentioned above, you can see that the center of the bell curve is moving. The average annual temperature of the 2050s is projected to be similar to the warmest years experienced in the 20th century.
“This changes the standard operating conditions we are used to,” said Tomaras. “The spot that was the hottest years will be the new average temperature for Edmonton. The new normal and everything to the right of that is literally off this chart of what we have experienced in the past.”
Warmer weather in Alberta? Heck yes, bring it on! Right? After the winter we have had this year, it would be easy to have this point of view, but a warmer average temperature could mean a number of things above and beyond enjoying more time in the sun.
It could mean:
“Temperature change and heat waves are not the only impacts Edmonton will be exposed to,” said Tomaras. “As temperature gets warmer, the risk we face will become more severe. In the near term, we will experience climate change through extreme events. Climate change is changing extreme weather events by increasing their frequency and intensity.”
A recent Global News article touched on how a changing climate will impact utility companies and their customers. The article states that the increasing intensity of storms that lead to massive power outages highlights the need for Canada’s electric utility be more robust and innovative.
“Climate change is putting quite a lot of pressure on electricity companies coast to coast to coast to improve their processes and look for ways to strengthen their systems in the face of this evolving threat,” said Devin McCarthy, vice president of public affairs and U.S. policy for the Canadian Electricity Association.
Nearly a quarter of total outage hours nationally in 2016 (22%) were caused by climate events.
The below graph was created by the Insurance Bureau of Canada and shows insured losses from natural disasters in Alberta over the last 35 years. From this graph you can see that over the last 15 years, costs for extreme events have been increasing.
Alberta saw record setting cots associated with the Calgary floods of 2013 and the Fort McMurray fires of 2016. As climate change continues to increase the number and strength of these events, costs will continue to go up.
“Between now and the time where we find solutions to the long-term effects of climate change, there is going to be a lot of heartache,” said Bill Adams, Insurance Bureau of Canada. “70% of weather related insured losses in Canada over the last five years have been in Alberta and a total of $7.5 billion has been paid out.”
What does this all mean?
“It means our standard operating conditions have changed,” said Thomaras. “It means the path we are on has changed. It means we need to prepare for where this new path is taking us.”
In Part 3 of this series we will look at what Edmonton and other cities in Alberta are doing to prepare for the future and be more resilient to the effects of climate change.
When we talk about climate change or even read about it in the media, there are common visual attributes that accompany the topic. These visuals are usually something along the lines of a polar bear standing on a small sheet of ice in the arctic water, or the devastation from hurricanes and other storms in distant countries.
Neither of these visuals immediately makes you think about Alberta, but the reality is that climate change is not something that will only affect the arctic, or far off places that we may or may not visit in our lifetime, it will affect all of us. Including Alberta.
So, what does a changing climate really mean to us as Albertans? What affect is this going to have on our everyday lives? On our economy?
Chandra Tomaras, Program Manager at the City of Edmonton, is leading the team dedicated to studying these exact topics. She has been working in Edmonton’s Environmental Strategic Planning Group, which looks after environmental sustainability, corporate environmental management, sustainability reporting, air quality management, and climate change resilience. Tomaras’ team has been challenged with the task of developing a community climate change adaptation and resilience strategy for Edmonton.
The Climate Adaptation Strategy for Edmonton will go to council in 2018 and outlines how Edmonton will prepare for the impacts of climate change. (We will cover more on what Edmonton and other cities in Alberta are doing to prepare for the future in Part 3 of this series.)
“I care about the work we do because climate change has widespread impacts,” said Tomaras during her presentation at the IPCC Cities and Climate Change Science Conference held in Edmonton. “The IPCC has said that climate change is projected to increase risks for people, assets, economies, and ecosystems. This includes risks from heat stress, storms, extreme precipitation, flooding, landslides, air pollution, drought, water scarcity, sea level rise, and storm surges.”
As we covered in part 1 of this series, the average surface temperature of the planet as a whole has risen by about 1-degree Celsius since the late 19th century. Most of that warming has happened in the last 35 years.
On a smaller scale, the Edmonton region has been warming significantly faster than the observed global rate. The climate history for the region looking back 100 years shows that the average annual temperature of the region has warmed about 1.7 degrees Celsius. In the below graph, which shows the climate history for the Edmonton region in the last 50 years, the Edmonton region has been warming at a much faster rate, almost twice that. According to Tomaras, climate models are showing that we are going to be warming at that faster rate until the end of the century.
You are probably saying to yourself, ok 1.7 degrees Celsius, that’s really not that much of an increase. Let’s look at it another way. The shifting bell curve graph is what really hit home for me. Tomaras explained that the graph shows the statistical variability of the annual average temperature in the Edmonton region.
Sounds kind of complicated right? Let’s break it down.
The center of the bell curve is the average temperature. This means that most times during the last century, Edmonton’s annual temperature was about 1.9 degrees Celsius.
When the temperature is on the right side of the graph, it was warmer than the average, and when it is on the left side of the graph the temperature was colder than average. The very far right side of the graph shows when Edmonton got the hottest years on record. As you can see, the occurrences of this was very small.
“This graph shows the standard operating conditions that we have been living in during the 20th century,” said Tomaras. “We are used to operating in these conditions. Many of the things we have built have been designed for these conditions. This is what we have prepared for.”
Now if you look at the bell curve in relation to the warming mentioned above, you can see that the center of the bell curve is moving. The average annual temperature of the 2050s is projected to be similar to the warmest years experienced in the 20th century.
Warmer weather in Alberta? Heck yes, bring it on! Right? After the winter we have had this year, it would be easy to have this point of view, but a warmer average temperature could mean a number of things above and beyond enjoying more time in the sun.
It could mean:
- We will have warmer winters
- The type of snow Edmonton receives will change
- The type of winter activities we do will change
- Some of the bugs that our winter cold used to kill off, won’t die anymore
- There will be hotter summers
“Temperature change and heat waves are not the only impacts Edmonton will be exposed to,” said Tomaras. “As temperature gets warmer, the risk we face will become more severe. In the near term, we will experience climate change through extreme events. Climate change is changing extreme weather events by increasing their frequency and intensity.”
A recent Global News article touched on how a changing climate will impact utility companies and their customers. The article states that the increasing intensity of storms that lead to massive power outages highlights the need for Canada’s electric utility be more robust and innovative.
“Climate change is putting quite a lot of pressure on electricity companies coast to coast to coast to improve their processes and look for ways to strengthen their systems in the face of this evolving threat,” said Devin McCarthy, vice president of public affairs and U.S. policy for the Canadian Electricity Association.
Nearly a quarter of total outage hours nationally in 2016 (22%) were caused by climate events.
The below graph was created by the Insurance Bureau of Canada and shows insured losses from natural disasters in Alberta over the last 35 years. From this graph you can see that over the last 15 years, costs for extreme events have been increasing.
Alberta saw record setting cots associated with the Calgary floods of 2013 and the Fort McMurray fires of 2016. As climate change continues to increase the number and strength of these events, costs will continue to go up.
“Between now and the time where we find solutions to the long-term effects of climate change, there is going to be a lot of heartache,” said Bill Adams, Insurance Bureau of Canada. “70% of weather related insured losses in Canada over the last five years have been in Alberta and a total of $7.5 billion has been paid out.”
What does this all mean?
“It means our standard operating conditions have changed,” said Thomaras. “It means the path we are on has changed. It means we need to prepare for where this new path is taking us.”
In Part 3 of this series we will look at what Edmonton and other cities in Alberta are doing to prepare for the future and be more resilient to the effects of climate change.